Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

Spatial Re-Establishment Dynamics of Local Populations of Vectors of Chagas Disease

Chagas disease is transmitted by blood-sucking bugs (vectors) and presents a severe public health threat in the Americas. Worldwide there are approximately 10 million people infected with Chagas disease, a disease for which there is currently no effective cure. Vector suppression is the main strategy to control the spread of this disease. Unfortunately, the vectors have been resurgent in some areas. It is important to understand the dynamics of reinfestation where it occurs. Here we show how different models fitted to patch-level bug infestation data can elucidate different aspects of re-establishment dynamics. Our results demonstrated a 6-month time lag between detection of a new infestation and dispersal events, seasonality in dispersal rates and effects of previous vector infestation on subsequent vector establishment rates. In addition we provide estimates of dispersal distances and the effect of insecticide spraying on rates of vector re-establishment. While some of our results confirm previous findings, the effects of season and previous infestation on bug establishment challenge our current understanding of T. infestans ecology and highlight important gaps in our knowledge of T. infestans dispersal

Evaluation of 22 genetic variants with Crohn's Disease risk in the Ashkenazi Jewish population: a case-control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Crohn's disease (CD) has the highest prevalence among individuals of Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) descent compared to non-Jewish Caucasian populations (NJ). We evaluated a set of well-established CD-susceptibility variants to determine if they can explain the increased CD risk in the AJ population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We recruited 369 AJ CD patients and 503 AJ controls, genotyped 22 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at or near 10 CD-associated genes, <it>NOD2</it>, <it>IL23R</it>, <it>IRGM</it>, <it>ATG16L1</it>, <it>PTGER4</it>, <it>NKX2-3</it>, <it>IL12B</it>, <it>PTPN2</it>, <it>TNFSF15 </it>and <it>STAT3</it>, and assessed their association with CD status. We generated genetic scores based on the risk allele count alone and the risk allele count weighed by the effect size, and evaluated their predictive value.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Three <it>NOD2 </it>SNPs, two <it>IL23R </it>SNPs, and one SNP each at <it>IRGM </it>and <it>PTGER4 </it>were independently associated with CD risk. Carriage of 7 or more copies of these risk alleles or the weighted genetic risk score of 7 or greater correctly classified 92% (allelic count score) and 83% (weighted score) of the controls; however, only 29% and 47% of the cases were identified as having the disease, respectively. This cutoff was associated with a >4-fold increased disease risk (p < 10e-16).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>CD-associated genetic risks were similar to those reported in NJ population and are unlikely to explain the excess prevalence of the disease in AJ individuals. These results support the existence of novel, yet unidentified, genetic variants unique to this population. Understanding of ethnic and racial differences in disease susceptibility may help unravel the pathogenesis of CD leading to new personalized diagnostic and therapeutic approaches.</p

Mechanical properties of the compass depressors of the sea-urchin Paracentrotus lividus (Echinodermata, Echinoidea) and the effects of enzymes, neurotransmitters and synthetic tensilin-like protein

The compass depressors (CDs) of the sea-urchin lantern are ligaments consisting mainly of discontinuous collagen fibrils associated with a small population of myocytes. They are mutable collagenous structures, which can change their mechanical properties rapidly and reversibly under nervous control. The aims of this investigation were to characterise the baseline (i.e. unmanipulated) static mechanical properties of the CDs of Paracentrotus lividus by means of creep tests and incremental force-extension tests, and to determine the effects on their mechanical behaviour of a range of agents. Under constant load the CDs exhibited a three-phase creep curve, the mean coefficient of viscosity being 561±365 MPa.s. The stress-strain curve showed toe, linear and yield regions; the mean strain at the toe-linear inflection was 0.86±0.61; the mean Young's modulus was 18.62±10.30 MPa; and the mean tensile strength was 8.14±5.73 MPa. Hyaluronidase from Streptomyces hyalurolyticus had no effect on creep behaviour, whilst chondroitinase ABC prolonged primary creep but had no effect on secondary creep or on any force-extension parameters; it thus appears that neither hyaluronic acid nor sulphated glycosaminoglycans have an interfibrillar load transfer function in the CD. Acetylcholine, the muscarinic agonists arecoline and methacholine, and the nicotinic agonists nicotine and 1-[1-(3,4-dimethyl-phenyl)-ethyl]-piperazine produced an abrupt increase in CD viscosity; the CDs were not differentially sensitive to muscarinic or nicotinic agonists. CDs showed either no, or no consistent, response to adrenaline, L-glutamic acid, 5-hydroxytryptamine and γ-aminobutyric acid. Synthetic echinoid tensilin-like protein had a weak and inconsistent stiffening effect, indicating that, in contrast to holothurian tensilins, the echinoid molecule may not be involved in the regulation of collagenous tissue tensility. We compare in detail the mechanical behaviour of the CD with that of mammalian tendon and highlight its potential as a model system for investigating poorly understood aspects of the ontogeny and phylogeny of vertebrate collagenous tissues.(undefined)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Use of different RT-QuIC substrates for detecting CWD prions in the brain of Norwegian cervids

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a highly contagious prion disease affecting captive and free-ranging cervid populations. CWD has been detected in United States, Canada, South Korea and, most recently, in Europe (Norway, Finland and Sweden). Animals with CWD release infectious prions in the environment through saliva, urine and feces sustaining disease spreading between cervids but also potentially to other non-cervids ruminants (e.g. sheep, goats and cattle). In the light of these considerations and due to CWD unknown zoonotic potential, it is of utmost importance to follow specific surveillance programs useful to minimize disease spreading and transmission. The European community has already in place specific surveillance measures, but the traditional diagnostic tests performed on nervous or lymphoid tissues lack sensitivity. We have optimized a Real-Time Quaking-Induced Conversion (RT-QuIC) assay for detecting CWD prions with high sensitivity and specificity to try to overcome this problem. In this work, we show that bank vole prion protein (PrP) is an excellent substrate for RT-QuIC reactions, enabling the detection of trace-amounts of CWD prions, regardless of prion strain and cervid species. Beside supporting the traditional diagnostic tests, this technology could be exploited for detecting prions in peripheral tissues from live animals, possibly even at preclinical stages of the disease

Transmission of Chronic Wasting Disease Identifies a Prion Strain Causing Cachexia and Heart Infection in Hamsters

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an emerging prion disease of free-ranging and captive cervids in North America. In this study we established a rodent model for CWD in Syrian golden hamsters that resemble key features of the disease in cervids including cachexia and infection of cardiac muscle. Following one to three serial passages of CWD from white-tailed deer into transgenic mice expressing the hamster prion protein gene, CWD was subsequently passaged into Syrian golden hamsters. In one passage line there were preclinical changes in locomotor activity and a loss of body mass prior to onset of subtle neurological symptoms around 340 days. The clinical symptoms included a prominent wasting disease, similar to cachexia, with a prolonged duration. Other features of CWD in hamsters that were similar to cervid CWD included the brain distribution of the disease-specific isoform of the prion protein, PrPSc, prion infection of the central and peripheral neuroendocrine system, and PrPSc deposition in cardiac muscle. There was also prominent PrPSc deposition in the nasal mucosa on the edge of the olfactory sensory epithelium with the lumen of the nasal airway that could have implications for CWD shedding into nasal secretions and disease transmission. Since the mechanism of wasting disease in prion diseases is unknown this hamster CWD model could provide a means to investigate the physiological basis of cachexia, which we propose is due to a prion-induced endocrinopathy. This prion disease phenotype has not been described in hamsters and we designate it as the ‘wasting’ or WST strain of hamster CWD

CCNE1 and survival of patients with tubo-ovarian high-grade serous carcinoma: An Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium study

BACKGROUND: Cyclin E1 (CCNE1) is a potential predictive marker and therapeutic target in tubo-ovarian high-grade serous carcinoma (HGSC). Smaller studies have revealed unfavorable associations for CCNE1 amplification and CCNE1 overexpression with survival, but to date no large-scale, histotype-specific validation has been performed. The hypothesis was that high-level amplification of CCNE1 and CCNE1 overexpression, as well as a combination of the two, are linked to shorter overall survival in HGSC. METHODS: Within the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium, amplification status and protein level in 3029 HGSC cases and mRNA expression in 2419 samples were investigated. RESULTS: High-level amplification (>8 copies by chromogenic in situ hybridization) was found in 8.6% of HGSC and overexpression (>60% with at least 5% demonstrating strong intensity by immunohistochemistry) was found in 22.4%. CCNE1 high-level amplification and overexpression both were linked to shorter overall survival in multivariate survival analysis adjusted for age and stage, with hazard stratification by study (hazard ratio [HR], 1.26; 95% CI, 1.08-1.47, p = .034, and HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.05-1.32, p = .015, respectively). This was also true for cases with combined high-level amplification/overexpression (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.09-1.47, p = .033). CCNE1 mRNA expression was not associated with overall survival (HR, 1.00 per 1-SD increase; 95% CI, 0.94-1.06; p = .58). CCNE1 high-level amplification is mutually exclusive with the presence of germline BRCA1/2 pathogenic variants and shows an inverse association to RB1 loss. CONCLUSION: This study provides large-scale validation that CCNE1 high-level amplification is associated with shorter survival, supporting its utility as a prognostic biomarker in HGSC

Genome-wide association study identifies six new loci influencing pulse pressure and mean arterial pressure.

Numerous genetic loci have been associated with systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) in Europeans. We now report genome-wide association studies of pulse pressure (PP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP). In discovery (N = 74,064) and follow-up studies (N = 48,607), we identified at genome-wide significance (P = 2.7 × 10(-8) to P = 2.3 × 10(-13)) four new PP loci (at 4q12 near CHIC2, 7q22.3 near PIK3CG, 8q24.12 in NOV and 11q24.3 near ADAMTS8), two new MAP loci (3p21.31 in MAP4 and 10q25.3 near ADRB1) and one locus associated with both of these traits (2q24.3 near FIGN) that has also recently been associated with SBP in east Asians. For three of the new PP loci, the estimated effect for SBP was opposite of that for DBP, in contrast to the majority of common SBP- and DBP-associated variants, which show concordant effects on both traits. These findings suggest new genetic pathways underlying blood pressure variation, some of which may differentially influence SBP and DBP